上神 貴佳

本論文は,2003年総選挙の公約データを用いて,「政党・政策中心の選挙」の現状と政党内における政策的な分散を説明する「選挙制度不均一モデル」を検証する.前者については,自民党と民主党,二大政党間の政策的な違いは大きいといえず,両党内の政策的な凝集性も低いことを示した.また,「選挙制度不均一モデル」が予測する衆議院と都道府県議会において異なる選挙制度の効果については,系列関係の程度や地方議会選挙における競合のあり方に応じて,国政レベルの政策対立が末端まで浸透しないことを部分的に確認した.

This paper examines the structure of political alienation among Japanese eligible voters, using data from the first, second, fifth, and sixth waves of the seven-wave Japanese Electoral Survey II (JES II). Political alienation can be expressed as comprising two dimensions, political trust and civic-mindedness. Males and people with more years of schooling are more allegiant in general; that is, they are both more trusting and more civic-minded. Evaluations of cabinet performance and support for democratic mechanisms are strongly related to political trust and civic-mindedness. Supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are no more civic-minded than average but are more trusting politically, whereas Japan Communist Party supporters are more civic-minded but a good deal less politically trusting than average. Independents are below the overall average on both the political trust and civic-mindedness dimensions. Even thought party support is unstable. Japan's political system will not lose its stability as long as LDP supporters and independents constitute the majority of Japan's electorate. The advent of a new party capable of providing an alternative to the LDP is important to the future of Japanese democracy.