Researcher Search Results Kentaro Fukumoto Kentaro Fukumoto (福元 健太郎) Please select the form format to download from below 「Education and research environment」format 「No. 4, the Ministry of Education document style ①Outline for Vitae」format 「No. 4, the Ministry of Education document style ②Education and research environment」format Profile Information AffiliationProfessor, Faculty of Law, Department of Political Studies, Faculty of Law Department of Political Studies, Gakushuin UniversityDegree博士(法学)(東京大学)J-GLOBAL ID200901004117561783researchmap Member ID1000185146External linkhttps://sites.google.com/g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kentarofukumoto/政治学、特に統計分析の開発に焦点をあてる政治分析方法論という分野を専攻しています。立法活動から研究を始めましたが、現在は選挙に比重を移しています。 Research Interests 8 選挙 統計学 政治分析方法論 参加 立法 Political methodology Participation Legislation Research Areas 1 Humanities & social sciences / Politics / Research History 12 2024 - Present 教授, 大学院法学政治学研究科, 東京大学 2007 - 2024 Professor, Gakushuin Univ. 2007 - 2024 -:学習院大学法学部教授 2014 - 2015 Washington University in St. Louis 2000 - 2007 Associate Professor, Gakushuin Univ. More Committee Memberships 3 2010 日本選挙学会 2010年度年報編集委員、2012年度企画委員、2008年度企画委員 2009 日本政治学会 2009年度年報委員 理事(2012年4月~2015年11月) 第25回大会企画委員 学会誌編集委員(61号編集委員、62号編集長(副担当)、67号編集委員長・編集長(主担当)), 公共選択学会 Awards 1 2013 日本選挙学会優秀論文賞 Papers 72 The Effect of Candidate List Position on Vote Share: Improving Internal Validity and Expanding Scope Conditions Kentaro Fukumoto Social Science Quarterly, Mar, 2025 Not monotonically correlated, but dependent: A family of normal mode copulas Kentaro Fukumoto Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Feb 13, 2025 After a Storm Come Votes: Identifying the Effects of Disaster Relief on Electoral Outcomes Kentaro Fukumoto, Kyosuke Kikuta Political Behavior, Dec, 2024 Normal Mode Copulas for Nonmonotonic Dependence Kentaro Fukumoto Political Analysis, Oct, 2024 政治学における計量と数理の統合の試み—特集 データサイエンスと数理モデル 福元 健太郎 数理科学, 62(4) 39-46, Apr, 2024 More Misc. 45 「自然実験」 福元 健太郎 薩摩順吉・大石進一・杉原正顕編『応用数理ハンドブック』, 220-21, 2013 Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable : Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses Fukumoto Kentaro 40 359-360, Sep 13, 2012 「ゲームで学ぶ政治学7 権力か政策か」 福元 健太郎 『UP』, 41(473) 22-27, 2012 「ヤバい政治学 データで分かる政治のウラ表」第1回 『政治不信が高まると投票率が低くなる』は本当か 詳細なデータ分析から浮かび上がる意外な事実 福元 健太郎, 堀内勇作 『日経ビジネス』オンライン版, 2012 「ヤバい政治学 データで分かる政治のウラ表」第2回 笑う門には『票』来たる 顔認証技術が明らかにした無責任な投票行動 福元 健太郎, 堀内勇作 『日経ビジネス』オンライン版, 2012 More Books and Other Publications 11 The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations Fukumoto, Kentaro (Role: Contributor, Duration Analysis, pp. 659-678) Sage, 2020 『立法の制度と過程』 木鐸社, 2007 『日本政治 変動の30年:政治家・官僚・団体調査に見る構造変容』 東洋経済新報社, 2006 『アクセス 日本政治論』 日本経済評論社, 2003 Political Studies on Democracy(co-author) University of Tokyo Press, 2002 More Presentations 177 Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias SPM, 2006 Estimating Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without the Simultaneity Bias: Strategic Incumbents, Challengers, and Contributors, Paper prepared for the 23rd Annual Summer Methodology Conference, University of California, Davis, 2006 Judging Political Promotion of Judges: Survival Analysis, Split Population Model and Matching Method, Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 2006 Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias 2006 A Bayesian Analysis of Time-Series Event Count Data: An Application to Legislative Production, Workshop on Bayesian Statistics and Applied Econometrics, 2006 Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment 2006 Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses 2006 Measuring Judicial Independence Reconsidered: Survival Analysis of Judicial Careers APSA, 2006 Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events Workshop on Bayesian Statistics and Applied Econometrics, 2006 Decreasing Electoral Risk and Strategic Retirement to Avoid Losing Election: Survival Analysis of Legislators' (Political) Life at Systematically Dependent Competing Risks, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2005 Survival Analysis of Systematically Dependent Competing Risks: An Application to the U.S. Congressional Careers, Paper for poster session at the 22nd Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Tallahassee, FL, USA, 2005 Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses 現代政治経済研究会, 2005 Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events 日本政治研究学会, 2005 「立法生産性の決定要因:非負整数時系列データのベイズ分析」 日本政治研究学会研究会, 2005 Decreasing Electoral Risk and Strategic Retirement to Avoid Losing Election: Survival Analysis of Legislators' (Political) Life at Systematically Dependent Competing Risks, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2005 Survival Analysis of Systematically Dependent Competing Risks: An Application to the U.S. Congressional Careers, Paper for poster session at the 22nd Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Tallahassee, FL, USA, 2005 Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses 2005 Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events 2005 How Many Laws does the Legislature Make? Cross Country Comparison and Cointegrated Time Series of Japan, repared for the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2004 「両院協議会と衆院再議決:国会における二院制の政策的帰結」 日本選挙学会研究会, 2004 How do Separated Powers Unify Separated Purposes?, Paper prepared for the Sixth Workshop of Parliamentary Scholars and Parliamentarians, Wroxton College, Oxfordshire, UK, 2004 Stable Policy Outcome under New Circumstances: Inter-chamber Coordination in the Japanese Diet in the 1990s, Paper prepared for the Western Conference of the Association for Asian Studies, Seattle,WA,USA,, 2004 How Many Laws does the Legislature Make? Cross Country Comparison and Cointegrated Time Series of Japan, repared for the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2004 How do Separated Powers Unify Separated Purposes?, Paper prepared for the Sixth Workshop of Parliamentary Scholars and Parliamentarians, Wroxton College, Oxfordshire, UK, 2004 Stable Policy Outcome under New Circumstances: Inter-chamber Coordination in the Japanese Diet in the 1990s, Paper prepared for the Western Conference of the Association for Asian Studies, Seattle,WA,USA,, 2004 Bicameralism in Japan: Are the Two Houses Really Different and Why? Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association , Boston, MA, USA, 2002 Bicameralism in Japan: Are the Two Houses Really Different and Why? Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association , Boston, MA, USA, 2002 «1234 Professional Memberships 6 日本経済学会 公共選択学会 Midwest Political Science Association American Political Science Association 日本選挙学会 More Works 2 国会運営と立法行動の長期的変化に関する理論的・実証的研究 2001 - 2004 Study on the Diet 2001 - 2004 Research Projects 27 人は政党や企業などをどのように数えるか 科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Jun, 2024 - Mar, 2027 福元 健太郎 The effects of visual image on political behavior Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2019 - Mar, 2024 日本から世界への「行動政治学」の発信:オンライン実験による非合理的政治行動の研究 科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Apr, 2019 - Mar, 2024 福元 健太郎, 稲増 一憲, 遠藤 晶久, 尾野 嘉邦, 善教 将大, 肥前 洋一, 三輪 洋文 災害政策の不正を正す 科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Jun, 2019 - Mar, 2023 福元 健太郎, 菊田 恭輔 Causal Inference on Voter Turnout by Exploiting As-if Random Timing of Municipal Elections Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2016 - Mar, 2019 Fukumoto Kentaro More
Kentaro Fukumoto (福元 健太郎) Please select the form format to download from below 「Education and research environment」format 「No. 4, the Ministry of Education document style ①Outline for Vitae」format 「No. 4, the Ministry of Education document style ②Education and research environment」format Profile Information AffiliationProfessor, Faculty of Law, Department of Political Studies, Faculty of Law Department of Political Studies, Gakushuin UniversityDegree博士(法学)(東京大学)J-GLOBAL ID200901004117561783researchmap Member ID1000185146External linkhttps://sites.google.com/g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kentarofukumoto/政治学、特に統計分析の開発に焦点をあてる政治分析方法論という分野を専攻しています。立法活動から研究を始めましたが、現在は選挙に比重を移しています。 Research Interests 8 選挙 統計学 政治分析方法論 参加 立法 Political methodology Participation Legislation Research Areas 1 Humanities & social sciences / Politics / Research History 12 2024 - Present 教授, 大学院法学政治学研究科, 東京大学 2007 - 2024 Professor, Gakushuin Univ. 2007 - 2024 -:学習院大学法学部教授 2014 - 2015 Washington University in St. Louis 2000 - 2007 Associate Professor, Gakushuin Univ. More Committee Memberships 3 2010 日本選挙学会 2010年度年報編集委員、2012年度企画委員、2008年度企画委員 2009 日本政治学会 2009年度年報委員 理事(2012年4月~2015年11月) 第25回大会企画委員 学会誌編集委員(61号編集委員、62号編集長(副担当)、67号編集委員長・編集長(主担当)), 公共選択学会 Awards 1 2013 日本選挙学会優秀論文賞 Papers 72 The Effect of Candidate List Position on Vote Share: Improving Internal Validity and Expanding Scope Conditions Kentaro Fukumoto Social Science Quarterly, Mar, 2025 Not monotonically correlated, but dependent: A family of normal mode copulas Kentaro Fukumoto Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Feb 13, 2025 After a Storm Come Votes: Identifying the Effects of Disaster Relief on Electoral Outcomes Kentaro Fukumoto, Kyosuke Kikuta Political Behavior, Dec, 2024 Normal Mode Copulas for Nonmonotonic Dependence Kentaro Fukumoto Political Analysis, Oct, 2024 政治学における計量と数理の統合の試み—特集 データサイエンスと数理モデル 福元 健太郎 数理科学, 62(4) 39-46, Apr, 2024 More Misc. 45 「自然実験」 福元 健太郎 薩摩順吉・大石進一・杉原正顕編『応用数理ハンドブック』, 220-21, 2013 Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable : Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses Fukumoto Kentaro 40 359-360, Sep 13, 2012 「ゲームで学ぶ政治学7 権力か政策か」 福元 健太郎 『UP』, 41(473) 22-27, 2012 「ヤバい政治学 データで分かる政治のウラ表」第1回 『政治不信が高まると投票率が低くなる』は本当か 詳細なデータ分析から浮かび上がる意外な事実 福元 健太郎, 堀内勇作 『日経ビジネス』オンライン版, 2012 「ヤバい政治学 データで分かる政治のウラ表」第2回 笑う門には『票』来たる 顔認証技術が明らかにした無責任な投票行動 福元 健太郎, 堀内勇作 『日経ビジネス』オンライン版, 2012 More Books and Other Publications 11 The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations Fukumoto, Kentaro (Role: Contributor, Duration Analysis, pp. 659-678) Sage, 2020 『立法の制度と過程』 木鐸社, 2007 『日本政治 変動の30年:政治家・官僚・団体調査に見る構造変容』 東洋経済新報社, 2006 『アクセス 日本政治論』 日本経済評論社, 2003 Political Studies on Democracy(co-author) University of Tokyo Press, 2002 More Presentations 177 Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias SPM, 2006 Estimating Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without the Simultaneity Bias: Strategic Incumbents, Challengers, and Contributors, Paper prepared for the 23rd Annual Summer Methodology Conference, University of California, Davis, 2006 Judging Political Promotion of Judges: Survival Analysis, Split Population Model and Matching Method, Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 2006 Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias 2006 A Bayesian Analysis of Time-Series Event Count Data: An Application to Legislative Production, Workshop on Bayesian Statistics and Applied Econometrics, 2006 Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment 2006 Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses 2006 Measuring Judicial Independence Reconsidered: Survival Analysis of Judicial Careers APSA, 2006 Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events Workshop on Bayesian Statistics and Applied Econometrics, 2006 Decreasing Electoral Risk and Strategic Retirement to Avoid Losing Election: Survival Analysis of Legislators' (Political) Life at Systematically Dependent Competing Risks, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2005 Survival Analysis of Systematically Dependent Competing Risks: An Application to the U.S. Congressional Careers, Paper for poster session at the 22nd Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Tallahassee, FL, USA, 2005 Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses 現代政治経済研究会, 2005 Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events 日本政治研究学会, 2005 「立法生産性の決定要因:非負整数時系列データのベイズ分析」 日本政治研究学会研究会, 2005 Decreasing Electoral Risk and Strategic Retirement to Avoid Losing Election: Survival Analysis of Legislators' (Political) Life at Systematically Dependent Competing Risks, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2005 Survival Analysis of Systematically Dependent Competing Risks: An Application to the U.S. Congressional Careers, Paper for poster session at the 22nd Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Tallahassee, FL, USA, 2005 Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses 2005 Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events 2005 How Many Laws does the Legislature Make? Cross Country Comparison and Cointegrated Time Series of Japan, repared for the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2004 「両院協議会と衆院再議決:国会における二院制の政策的帰結」 日本選挙学会研究会, 2004 How do Separated Powers Unify Separated Purposes?, Paper prepared for the Sixth Workshop of Parliamentary Scholars and Parliamentarians, Wroxton College, Oxfordshire, UK, 2004 Stable Policy Outcome under New Circumstances: Inter-chamber Coordination in the Japanese Diet in the 1990s, Paper prepared for the Western Conference of the Association for Asian Studies, Seattle,WA,USA,, 2004 How Many Laws does the Legislature Make? Cross Country Comparison and Cointegrated Time Series of Japan, repared for the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2004 How do Separated Powers Unify Separated Purposes?, Paper prepared for the Sixth Workshop of Parliamentary Scholars and Parliamentarians, Wroxton College, Oxfordshire, UK, 2004 Stable Policy Outcome under New Circumstances: Inter-chamber Coordination in the Japanese Diet in the 1990s, Paper prepared for the Western Conference of the Association for Asian Studies, Seattle,WA,USA,, 2004 Bicameralism in Japan: Are the Two Houses Really Different and Why? Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association , Boston, MA, USA, 2002 Bicameralism in Japan: Are the Two Houses Really Different and Why? Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association , Boston, MA, USA, 2002 «1234 Professional Memberships 6 日本経済学会 公共選択学会 Midwest Political Science Association American Political Science Association 日本選挙学会 More Works 2 国会運営と立法行動の長期的変化に関する理論的・実証的研究 2001 - 2004 Study on the Diet 2001 - 2004 Research Projects 27 人は政党や企業などをどのように数えるか 科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Jun, 2024 - Mar, 2027 福元 健太郎 The effects of visual image on political behavior Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2019 - Mar, 2024 日本から世界への「行動政治学」の発信:オンライン実験による非合理的政治行動の研究 科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Apr, 2019 - Mar, 2024 福元 健太郎, 稲増 一憲, 遠藤 晶久, 尾野 嘉邦, 善教 将大, 肥前 洋一, 三輪 洋文 災害政策の不正を正す 科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Jun, 2019 - Mar, 2023 福元 健太郎, 菊田 恭輔 Causal Inference on Voter Turnout by Exploiting As-if Random Timing of Municipal Elections Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2016 - Mar, 2019 Fukumoto Kentaro More