Curriculum Vitaes

Kentaro Fukumoto

(福元健太郎)

Profile Information

Affiliation: Professor, Faculty of Law, Department of Political Studies, Faculty of Law Department of Political Studies, Gakushuin University

Degree: 博士（法学）(東京大学)

J-GLOBAL ID: 200901004117561783
researchmap Member ID: 1000185146

External link: https://sites.google.com/g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kentarofukumoto/

政治学、特に統計分析の開発に焦点をあてる政治分析方法論という分野を専攻しています。立法活動から研究を始めましたが、現在は選挙に比重を移しています。

Research Interests

8

Research Areas

1

Humanities & social sciences / Politics /

Research History

12

2024 - Present

教授, 大学院法学政治学研究科, 東京大学
2007 - 2024

Professor, Gakushuin Univ.
2007 - 2024

-:学習院大学法学部教授
2014 - 2015

Washington University in St. Louis
2000 - 2007

Associate Professor, Gakushuin Univ.

Committee Memberships

3

Awards

1

2013

日本選挙学会優秀論文賞

Papers

72

The Effect of Candidate List Position on Vote Share: Improving Internal Validity and Expanding Scope Conditions

Kentaro Fukumoto

Social Science Quarterly, Mar, 2025
Not monotonically correlated, but dependent: A family of normal mode copulas

Kentaro Fukumoto

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Feb 13, 2025
After a Storm Come Votes: Identifying the Effects of Disaster Relief on Electoral Outcomes

Kentaro Fukumoto, Kyosuke Kikuta

Political Behavior, Dec, 2024
Normal Mode Copulas for Nonmonotonic Dependence

Kentaro Fukumoto

Political Analysis, Oct, 2024
政治学における計量と数理の統合の試み—特集データサイエンスと数理モデル

福元健太郎

数理科学, 62(4) 39-46, Apr, 2024

Misc.

45

「自然実験」

福元健太郎

薩摩順吉・大石進一・杉原正顕編『応用数理ハンドブック』, 220-21, 2013
Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable : Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses

Fukumoto Kentaro

40 359-360, Sep 13, 2012
「ゲームで学ぶ政治学7 権力か政策か」

福元健太郎

『ＵＰ』, 41(473) 22-27, 2012
「ヤバい政治学データで分かる政治のウラ表」第1回『政治不信が高まると投票率が低くなる』は本当か詳細なデータ分析から浮かび上がる意外な事実

福元健太郎, 堀内勇作

『日経ビジネス』オンライン版, 2012
「ヤバい政治学データで分かる政治のウラ表」第2回笑う門には『票』来たる顔認証技術が明らかにした無責任な投票行動

福元健太郎, 堀内勇作

『日経ビジネス』オンライン版, 2012

Books and Other Publications

11

The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations

Fukumoto, Kentaro (Role: Contributor, Duration Analysis, pp. 659-678)

Sage, 2020
『立法の制度と過程』

木鐸社, 2007
『日本政治変動の30年：政治家・官僚・団体調査に見る構造変容』

東洋経済新報社, 2006
『アクセス日本政治論』

日本経済評論社, 2003
Political Studies on Democracy(co-author)

University of Tokyo Press, 2002

Presentations

177

Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias

MPSA, 2008
Why Do Bicameral Chambers Usually, but Not Always, Agree? An Incomplete Information Game Model

MPSA, 2008
Why Do Bicameral Chambers Usually, but Not Always, Agree? An Incomplete Information Game Model

2008
What Happens Depends on When It Happens: Continuous or Ordered Event History Analysis Using Copula

SPM, 2008
Easy Issue for Me, Hard Issue for Them: Field Experiment in Large Social Surve

APSA, 2008
Measuring Judicial Independence Reconsidered: Survival Analysis of Judicial Careers

2008
What Happens Depends on When It Happens: Continuous or Ordered Event History Analysis Using Copula

2008
Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events

金沢大学研究集会「統計的離散モデリング」, 2007
Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses

合同研究集会「官庁統計データの公開における諸問題の研究」, 2007
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment

日本応用数理学会, 2007
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment,

Paper prepared for presentation at the first world meetings of the Public Choice Society, Amsterdam, Netherland, 2007
A Hierarchy of Citizenship: Identity Politics of Suffrage Extension and Welfare Development, The U.S. and Japan,

Paper presented at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne, Germany, 2007
Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias

MPSA, 2007
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment

日本公共政策学会, 2007
「不均質な選好による行政への委任：動学ゲーム・モデル」

日本公共政策学会研究会, 2007
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment

Public Choice Society, 2007
Why Do Bicameral Chambers Usually, but Not Always, Agree? An Incomplete Information Game Model

APSA, 2007
Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events

2007
Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses

2007
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment,

Paper prepared for presentation at the first world meetings of the Public Choice Society, Amsterdam, Netherland, 2007
A Hierarchy of Citizenship: Identity Politics of Suffrage Extension and Welfare Development, The U.S. and Japan,

Paper presented at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne, Germany, 2007
Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias

MPSA, 2007
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment

2007
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment

Public Choice Society, 2007
Why Do Bicameral Chambers Usually, but Not Always, Agree? An Incomplete Information Game Model

APSA, 2007
A Hierarchy of Citizenship: Identity Politics of Suffrage Extension and Welfare Development, The U.S. and Japan,

Paper presented at the Japan Colloquium, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA, 2006
The Effect of Position on Reelection and Promotion of Legislators

MPSA, 2006
Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events

MPSA, 2006
A Bayesian Analysis of Time-Series Event Count Data,

Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2006
The Effect of Position on Reelection and Promotion of Legislators,

Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2006
Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events

日本選挙学会, 2006
「計数時系列データのベイズ分析」

日本選挙学会研究会・方法論部会, 2006
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment

International Political Science Association, 2006
Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias

SPM, 2006
Estimating Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without the Simultaneity Bias: Strategic Incumbents, Challengers, and Contributors,

Paper prepared for the 23rd Annual Summer Methodology Conference, University of California, Davis, 2006
Judging Political Promotion of Judges: Survival Analysis, Split Population Model and Matching Method,

Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 2006
Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias

現代政治経済研究会, 2006
Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses

政治過程研究会, 2006
A Bayesian Analysis of Time-Series Event Count Data: An Application to Legislative Production,

Workshop on Bayesian Statistics and Applied Econometrics, 2006
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment

日本政治研究学会, 2006
Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses

2006
Measuring Judicial Independence Reconsidered: Survival Analysis of Judicial Careers

APSA, 2006
Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events

Workshop on Bayesian Statistics and Applied Econometrics, 2006
A Hierarchy of Citizenship: Identity Politics of Suffrage Extension and Welfare Development, The U.S. and Japan,

Paper presented at the Japan Colloquium, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA, 2006
The Effect of Position on Reelection and Promotion of Legislators

MPSA, 2006
Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events

MPSA, 2006
A Bayesian Analysis of Time-Series Event Count Data,

Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2006
The Effect of Position on Reelection and Promotion of Legislators,

Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, USA, 2006
Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events

2006
Heterogeneity Foundation of Discretion: Legislation, Execution, and Judgment

International Political Science Association, 2006

Professional Memberships

6

Works

2

国会運営と立法行動の長期的変化に関する理論的・実証的研究

2001 - 2004
Study on the Diet

2001 - 2004

Research Projects

27

人は政党や企業などをどのように数えるか

科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Jun, 2024 - Mar, 2027

福元健太郎
The effects of visual image on political behavior

Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2019 - Mar, 2024
日本から世界への「行動政治学」の発信：オンライン実験による非合理的政治行動の研究

科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Apr, 2019 - Mar, 2024

福元健太郎, 稲増一憲, 遠藤晶久, 尾野嘉邦, 善教将大, 肥前洋一, 三輪洋文
災害政策の不正を正す

科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Jun, 2019 - Mar, 2023

福元健太郎, 菊田恭輔
Causal Inference on Voter Turnout by Exploiting As-if Random Timing of Municipal Elections

Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2016 - Mar, 2019

Fukumoto Kentaro

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