Curriculum Vitaes

Kentaro Fukumoto

(福元健太郎)

Profile Information

Affiliation: Professor, Faculty of Law, Department of Political Studies, Faculty of Law Department of Political Studies, Gakushuin University

Degree: 博士（法学）(東京大学)

J-GLOBAL ID: 200901004117561783
researchmap Member ID: 1000185146

External link: https://sites.google.com/g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kentarofukumoto/

政治学、特に統計分析の開発に焦点をあてる政治分析方法論という分野を専攻しています。立法活動から研究を始めましたが、現在は選挙に比重を移しています。

Research Interests

8

Research Areas

1

Humanities & social sciences / Politics /

Research History

12

2024 - Present

教授, 大学院法学政治学研究科, 東京大学
2007 - 2024

Professor, Gakushuin Univ.
2007 - 2024

-:学習院大学法学部教授
2014 - 2015

Washington University in St. Louis
2000 - 2007

Associate Professor, Gakushuin Univ.

Committee Memberships

3

Awards

1

2013

日本選挙学会優秀論文賞

Papers

70

After a Storm Come Votes: Identifying the Effects of Disaster Relief on Electoral Outcomes

Kentaro Fukumoto, Kyosuke Kikuta

Political Behavior, Dec, 2024
Normal Mode Copulas for Nonmonotonic Dependence

Kentaro Fukumoto

Political Analysis, Oct, 2024
政治学における計量と数理の統合の試み—特集データサイエンスと数理モデル

福元健太郎

数理科学, 62(4) 39-46, Apr, 2024
What if neither randomized control trials nor public voting records are available in a get-out-the-vote field experiment?

Kentaro Fukumoto

Research & Politics, Oct, 2023
Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games on COVID-19 incidence in Japan: a synthetic control approach

Daisuke Yoneoka, Akifumi Eguchi, Kentato Fukumoto, Takayuki Kawashima, Yuta Tanoue, Takahiro Tabuchi, Hiroaki Miyata, Cyrus Ghaznavi, Kenji Shibuya, Shuhei Nomura

BMJ Open, Sep, 2022 Peer-reviewed

Misc.

45

「自然実験」

福元健太郎

薩摩順吉・大石進一・杉原正顕編『応用数理ハンドブック』, 220-21, 2013
Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable : Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses

Fukumoto Kentaro

40 359-360, Sep 13, 2012
「ゲームで学ぶ政治学7 権力か政策か」

福元健太郎

『ＵＰ』, 41(473) 22-27, 2012
「ヤバい政治学データで分かる政治のウラ表」第1回『政治不信が高まると投票率が低くなる』は本当か詳細なデータ分析から浮かび上がる意外な事実

福元健太郎, 堀内勇作

『日経ビジネス』オンライン版, 2012
「ヤバい政治学データで分かる政治のウラ表」第2回笑う門には『票』来たる顔認証技術が明らかにした無責任な投票行動

福元健太郎, 堀内勇作

『日経ビジネス』オンライン版, 2012

Books and Other Publications

11

The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations

Fukumoto, Kentaro (Role: Contributor, Duration Analysis, pp. 659-678)

Sage, 2020
『立法の制度と過程』

木鐸社, 2007
『日本政治変動の30年：政治家・官僚・団体調査に見る構造変容』

東洋経済新報社, 2006
『アクセス日本政治論』

日本経済評論社, 2003
Political Studies on Democracy(co-author)

University of Tokyo Press, 2002

Presentations

177

Detecting Unnatural Patterns in Radioactivity Monitoring Statistics in Japan through Natural Experiments

人工知能学会・人工知能基本問題研究会, 2013
Boundary that Matters?: Causal Inference of the School Quality Effect on Land Prices

Economic Science Association, National Institute of Informatics, 2013
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

応用経済時系列研究会, 2013
Detecting Unnatural Patterns in Radioactivity Monitoring Statistics in Japan through Natural Experiments

2013
Boundary that Matters?: Causal Inference of the School Quality Effect on Land Prices

Economic Science Association, National Institute of Informatics, 2013
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

2013
Boundary that Matters?: Causal Inference of the School Quality Effect on Land Prices

MPSA, 2012
Why Do Bicameral Chambers Usually, but Not Always, Agree? An Incomplete Information Game Model

公共選択学会全国大会, 2012
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2012
Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses

行動計量学会, 2012
Detecting Unnatural Patterns in Radioactivity Monitoring Statistics in Japan through Natural Experiments

実験社会科学カンファレンス, 2012
Boundary that Matters?: Causal Inference of the School Quality Effect on Land Prices

教育経済･教育政策コンファレンス, 2012
Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events

APSA, 2012
Boundary that Matters?: Causal Inference of the School Quality Effect on Land Prices

MPSA, 2012
Why Do Bicameral Chambers Usually, but Not Always, Agree? An Incomplete Information Game Model

2012
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2012
Unstable Respondents Make Approval Rate Unstable: Double Beta Regression for Proportion Data Composed of Heterogeneous Binary Responses

2012
Detecting Unnatural Patterns in Radioactivity Monitoring Statistics in Japan through Natural Experiments

2012
Boundary that Matters?: Causal Inference of the School Quality Effect on Land Prices

2012
Event Count Time-Series Models: A Bayesian State-Space Investigation, with Analysis of ‘Naming and Shaming’ Events

APSA, 2012
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

「少子高齢化の政治経済学」, 2011
Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias

ゲーム理論ワークショップ, 2011
Making Votes Count, Incorrectly: An Application of Benford’s Law to the Japanese Elections

日本選挙学会, 2011
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

日本経済学会, 2011
Boundary that Matters?: Causal Inference of the School Quality Effect on Land Prices

横浜公共選択研究会, 2011
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

SPM, 2011
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

APSA, 2011
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

APSA, 2011
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

実験社会科学カンファレンス, 2011
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

MPSA, 2011
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

MPSA, 2011
Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias

2011
Making Votes Count, Incorrectly: An Application of Benford’s Law to the Japanese Elections

2011
Boundary that Matters?: Causal Inference of the School Quality Effect on Land Prices

2011
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

SPM, 2011
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

APSA, 2011
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

APSA, 2011
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

2011
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

MPSA, 2011
Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure

MPSA, 2011
Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias

International Workshop on Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics, 2010
Extension of the ‘SNTV = d'Hondt’ Theory and the Threshold of Exclusion to Multiple, Limited, Cumulative Vote

「制度・政策デザインと評価」ワークショップ, 2010
Extension of the ‘SNTV = d'Hondt’ Theory and the Threshold of Exclusion to Multiple, Limited, Cumulative Vote

Public Choice Society, 2010
Extension of the ‘SNTV = d'Hondt’ Theory and the Threshold of Exclusion to Multiple, Limited, Cumulative Vote

MPSA, 2010
Bayesian Estimation of Incumbency Advantage and Campaign Spending Effect without Simultaneity Bias

MPSA, 2010
Extension of the ‘SNTV = d'Hondt’ Theory and the Threshold of Exclusion to Multiple, Limited, Cumulative Vote

日本選挙学会, 2010
What Happens Depends on When It Happens: Continuous or Ordered Event History Analysis Using Copula

応用統計学会, 2010
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

日本経済学会（特別セッション）, 2010
A Bayesian View of Party Systems

公共選択学会, 2010
The Staggered-Term Chamber as A Laboratory: The Effects of Election Proximity on Participatory Shirking

SPM, 2010

Professional Memberships

6

Works

2

国会運営と立法行動の長期的変化に関する理論的・実証的研究

2001 - 2004
Study on the Diet

2001 - 2004

Research Projects

27

人は政党や企業などをどのように数えるか

科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Jun, 2024 - Mar, 2027

福元健太郎
The effects of visual image on political behavior

Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2019 - Mar, 2024
日本から世界への「行動政治学」の発信：オンライン実験による非合理的政治行動の研究

科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Apr, 2019 - Mar, 2024

福元健太郎, 稲増一憲, 遠藤晶久, 尾野嘉邦, 善教将大, 肥前洋一, 三輪洋文
災害政策の不正を正す

科学研究費助成事業, 日本学術振興会, Jun, 2019 - Mar, 2023

福元健太郎, 菊田恭輔
Causal Inference on Voter Turnout by Exploiting As-if Random Timing of Municipal Elections

Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2016 - Mar, 2019

Fukumoto Kentaro

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