研究者業績

三輪 洋文

ミワ ヒロフミ  (Hirofumi Miwa)

基本情報

所属
学習院大学 法学部 政治学科 教授
学位
博士(法学)(東京大学)

J-GLOBAL ID
201601019304629416
researchmap会員ID
B000256475

外部リンク

研究キーワード

 4

論文

 23
  • 菅野 高也, 三輪 洋文
    Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament 1-22 2024年8月  査読有り最終著者責任著者
    This study examines the effect of perceived military threat on Japanese people’s opinion about Japan’s accession to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. While nuclear aversion has been historically strong and deep-rooted in Japan, we expected that people would hesitate to support the treaty when reminded of the deteriorating security environment, considering recent experimental evidence suggesting that nuclear aversion is conditional and tends to fluctuate often and that Japanese citizens tend to be apathetic towards international laws. Moreover, we examine the possibility that pressure from foreign countries and international organizations reinforces people’s support for the treaty. Our survey experiment reveals that Japanese people are less likely to support Japan’s accedence to the treaty when they are primed with security threats, although the difference is small, and that this negative effect is limited to centrist and conservative citizens. However, we find no evidence that international pressure has the power to promote people’s support for the treaty.
  • 三輪 洋文
    Political Studies 2024年7月  査読有り筆頭著者責任著者
    Recent studies in democratic countries suggest that voters generally prefer candidates with specific personal attributes, such as being female and young. However, some of these patterns cannot necessarily be explained by voters’ expectations of candidates’ competence. Building on a growing body of literature that addresses populist attitudes as an important factor influencing voters’ political preferences, this study hypothesizes that candidates’ personal attributes shape voters’ perceptions of their populist attitudes and that such perceptions mediate the relationship between personal attributes and voter preferences. A conjoint experiment conducted in Japan showed that several personal attributes substantially influenced candidates’ perceived anti-elitism and people-centrism. An additional experiment to disentangle causal mechanisms suggested that, albeit inconclusive, young candidates were more likely to be preferred because of voters’ expectations of their populist tendencies. Methodologically, this study illustrates advancements in the conjoint experiment design to elucidate causal mechanisms, with a careful discussion of necessary assumptions.
  • 粕谷 祐子, 三輪 洋文
    Journal of East Asian Studies 23(3) 411-437 2023年11月  査読有り
    The incumbent-led subversion of democracy represents the most prevalent form of democratic backsliding in recent decades. A central puzzle in this mode of backsliding is why these incumbents enjoy popular support despite their actions against democracy. We address this puzzle using the case of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Although some Philippine analysts have speculated that his popularity was inflated due to social desirability bias (SDB) among survey respondents, there has been limited empirical examination. Our pre-registered list experiment surveys conducted in February/March 2021 detected SBD-induced overreporting at about 39 percentage points in face-to-face surveys and 28 percentage points in online surveys. We also found that the poor Mindanaoans, and those who believed their neighbors supported Duterte, were more likely to respond according to SDB. These possibly counter-intuitive results should be interpreted with caution because the survey was conducted during the height of the COVID-19 lockdown, and the findings cannot necessarily be extrapolated to the other period of his presidency. Nevertheless, this study suggests that preference falsification could be an alternative explanation for the puzzle of popular incumbents in democratic backsliding.
  • 尾野 嘉邦, 三輪 洋文
    Politics, Groups, and Identities 11(5) 1203-1211 2023年10月  査読有り
    Growing evidence reveals that candidate issue engagement differs between men and women. However, recent research suggests that individual-level differences among candidates should be small under the strategic incentives inherent in single-member district elections that encourage party rather than personal-vote seeking. We examine whether men and women candidates emphasize different issues in their electoral campaigns and if the magnitude of the gender gap varies under different electoral rules. Our analysis of 7497 Japanese election manifestos spanning more than 20 years, from 1986 to 2009, reveals significant gender differences in the issues candidates emphasize in their electoral campaigns, regardless of party affiliation or other attributes. Moreover, these differences remain salient after an extensive change from a multi-member district to single-member district electoral system.
  • 三輪 洋文, 粕谷 祐子, 尾野 嘉邦
    Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 8(3) 671-688 2023年9月  査読有り招待有り筆頭著者
    Political family dynasties are a staple part of Japanese politics. According to one study, Japan has the fourth highest number of dynastic politicians among democratic countries, after Thailand, the Philippines, and Iceland. As a result, many scholars have qualitatively studied how these political families are born and managed. In contrast to the wealth of qualitative studies on this subject, however, few quantitative studies on Japanese political dynasties focus on how voters view them. To understand this question, we conducted two nation-wide surveys. Our major findings are that while the majority of respondents dislike dynastic candidates, they also value certain attributes of those candidates, such as their political networks, their potential for ministerial appointments, and their ability to bring pork projects to their constituencies. These results fill a gap in benchmark information on dynastic politics in Japan and are a departure from existing studies that show Japanese voters are neutral regarding whether a candidate is from a dynastic family in voting decisions.

MISC

 20
  • 杉山, 佳奈美, 久保山, 哲二, 三輪, 洋文, 宇野, 毅明
    じんもんこん2022論文集 2022 289-294 2022年12月2日  査読有り
    選挙公報のテキストデータに対して文書クラスタリングを適用した. クラスタリング手法には、 文書間類似度により形成されるネットワーク構造から密な部分構造を抽出するマイクロクラスタリングと、代表的なトピックモデルである LDAの2種類を利用した. クラスタリング結果を比較したとこ ろ, マイクロクラスタリングではトピックの解釈が容易な解像度が高いクラスタ, 特に政党に関して より類似度が高いクラスタが多数得られることが示された. さらにマイクロクラスタリングで抽出さ れた文書クラスタを元に回帰分析を行い, 個人票志向の候補者の傾向を解析した. その結果, LDA を 用いた先行研究にあった人手によるトピック解釈の過程を経ることなく, 選挙制度改革前後の変化や 政党ごとの特色について先行研究の主張を支持する結果が得られた.
  • 三輪 洋文, 粕谷 祐子, 尾野 嘉邦
    RIETI Discussion Paper Series 22-E-113 2022年12月  筆頭著者
  • 粕谷 祐子, 三輪 洋文, 尾野 嘉邦
    RIETI Discussion Paper Series 22-E-094 2022年9月  
  • 五十嵐 彰, 三輪 洋文, 尾野 嘉邦
    RIETI Discussion Paper Series 22-E-091 2022年9月  
  • 三輪 洋文
    法律時報 94(8) 18-23 2022年6月  招待有り

講演・口頭発表等

 52

教育業績(担当経験のある科目)

 10

所属学協会

 5

共同研究・競争的資金等の研究課題

 17