久保 公二

Since the abolition of the official peg and the introduction of a managed float in April 2012, the Central Bank of Myanmar has operated the daily auctions of foreign exchange aimed at smoothing exchange rate fluctuations. Despite the reforms, however, informal trading of foreign exchange remains pervasive. Using the daily informal exchange rate and Central Bank auction data, this study examines the impacts of auctions on the informal rate. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models indicate that the auctions did not reduce the conditional variance of the informal rate returns. Overall, the auctions have only a quite modest impact on the informal exchange rate.

In the Thailand-Myanmar remittance corridor, while the bulk of Myanmar migrant workers rely on informal money transfer operators, the informal operators themselves utilise a bank branch network to deliver funds to families of the migrant workers. Paradoxically, the expanding bank branch network has fostered informal money transfers. Against this backdrop, we examine determinants in migrant workers' choice of informal operators based on a questionnaire survey of Myanmar migrant workers in Thailand. The empirical results indicate that migrant workers who sent remittances to town were, while having alternative choices of remittance operators, more likely to choose the informal operators that utilised bank branches for delivery of funds to recipients. It implies that expanding the branch network of Myanmar banks is conducive to competition among informal money transfer operators.