椋 寛

Abstract In regional trade agreements (RTAs), member countries choose a common rule of origin (RoO) for each product. This study examines the factors that influence RoOs in four ASEAN‐plus‐one RTAs, which are agreements between ASEAN and four individual countries. One unique feature is that ASEAN as a whole negotiates with a plus‐one country, which may dilute the interests of individual ASEAN countries at large. Our findings are summarised as follows. First, the more restrictive RoOs are set in the products where plus‐one countries are less competitive against most ASEAN countries. Second, the more restrictive RoOs are likely to be imposed in products that plus‐one countries protect with higher most favoured nation tariffs. These two results reflect the bargaining power among a plus‐on country and ASEAN countries and indicate that plus‐one's preference influences RoOs more strongly. Third, we find contrasting results between intermediate and final products. RoOs are likely to be less restrictive in intermediate products and more restrictive in final products when plus‐one countries have higher export competitiveness or when the majority of ASEAN countries have higher MFN tariffs.

Abstract This study aims to empirically investigate the role of E-commerce (EC) on the trade impacts of COVID-19. To this end, we estimate gravity equations for bilateral trade among 34 reporting countries and their 145 partner countries during January–August in 2019 and 2020. Our major findings can be summarized as follows. A larger number of confirmed cases or deaths in both importing and exporting countries significantly decrease international trade. However, we found that EC development in importing countries contributes to mitigating this negative effect of COVID-19 on trade while that in exporting countries does not. These results are robust for our use of multiple measures of EC development.

<title>Abstract</title>We explore the new roles of rules of origin (ROO) when multinational enterprises (MNEs) manipulate their transfer prices to avoid a high corporate tax. The ROO under a free trade agreement (FTA) require exporters to identify the origin of exports to be eligible for a preferential tariff rate. We find that a value-added criterion of ROO restricts abusive transfer pricing by MNEs. Interestingly, an FTA with ROO can induce MNEs to shift profits from a low- to high-tax country. Because the ROO augment tax revenues inside FTA countries, they can transform a welfare-reducing FTA into a welfare-improving one.

Reciprocity is an important concept in international trade negotiations. However, we know little about who demands reciprocity in trade liberalization. This paper characterizes reciprocitarians based on a survey of 10,816 individuals in Japan. Workers in protected sectors tend to demand reciprocity in import liberalization, but oppose the demand for foreign countries to open their markets. In contrast, individuals in managerial occupations tend to demand foreign market opening, but reject the idea of no import liberalization without reciprocity. We also examine the effects of education, nationalism, and risk aversion.

We investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains by examining bilateral trade in finished machinery products from January to June in both 2019 and 2020. We use the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths as measures of the impact of the pandemic. Specifically, we investigate how these impacts affect value chains in three scenarios—countries that import finished machinery products, countries that export finished machinery products, and countries that export machinery parts to countries exporting finished machinery products—to assess the impacts on demand, output, and supply chain, respectively. In our analysis, the largest negative impacts were from supply chain effects, followed by output effects. In contrast, we did not find significant impacts from demand effects. We also found that output effects are not so strong in intra-Asian trade compared with trade in other regions.

<title>Abstract</title> The aim of this study is to quantify how lockdown policies implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic affected international trade in the first half of 2020. We examine monthly world trade data between January and June in both 2019 and 2020. Our findings can be summarized as follows. Stay-at-home orders did not have significant and robust effects on trade. Negative effects were found in only some industries, including those producing durable products and essential products. However, workplace closures had significant negative effects on trade, except for intra-Asian trade. These effects of workplace closures can be found in most industries.

<title>Abstract</title> We examine the impact of free trade agreement (FTA) use on import prices. For this analysis, we employ establishment-level import data with information on tariff schemes, that is, the FTA and most-favored-nation schemes used for importing. Unlike previous studies, we estimate the effects of FTA use on prices by controlling for differences in importing-firm characteristics. There are three main findings. First, the effect of FTA use is overestimated when not controlling for importing firm-related fixed effects. Second, on average, firms’ FTA use reduces tariffs by 12 percentage points and raises import prices by 3.6–6.7 percent. Third, in general, we do not find a price rise resulting from the costs of complying with rules of origin.

This paper investigates the welfare effect of forming a free trade agreement (FTA). To receive tariff-free treatment, firms must comply with the rules of origin (ROO). Outside firms could undertake either market-oriented or export-platform foreign direct investments (FDIs). ROO have the following effects: (i) An infeasible FTA may become feasible by deterring outside firms' FDIs, (ii) an FDI of a less efficient firm could replace that of an efficient firm, or (iii) FDIs made before the FTA is concluded might be eliminated. These potential effects complicate the welfare effect of the FTA and could decrease the consumer surplus.

Import liberalization is one of the most actively debated issues in trade policy. This paper examines how trade policy preferences are related to individual characteristics based on a survey in Japan. Among 10,000 surveyed individuals, people working in non-agricultural sectors, those working in managerial occupations, or those above retirement age tend to favor freer imports. This paper also finds that people who are influenced by the status quo bias are likely to oppose import liberalization even after controlling for each individual's various characteristics, suggesting that neither income compensation nor insurance schemes are sufficient for expanding support for free trade.

We analyze the provision of repair services (aftermarket services that are required for a certain fraction of durable units after sales) through an international duopoly model in which a domestic firm and a foreign firm compete in the domestic market. Trade liberalization in goods, if not accompanied by the liberalization of foreign direct investment (FDI) in services, induces the domestic firm to establish service facilities for repairing the foreign firm's products. This weakens the firms' competition in the product market, and the resulting anti-competitive effect hurts consumers and reduces world welfare. Despite the anti-competitive effect, trade liberalization may also hurt the foreign firm because the repairs reduce the sales of the imported good in the product market. Liberalization of service FDI helps resolve the problem because it induces the foreign firm to establish service facilities for its own products.

This paper studies sequential negotiations of bilateral free-trade agreements in an oligopoly model. The expansion of trading blocs through overlapping trade agreements allows the option of hub-and-spoke systems and achieves multilateral free trade as the equilibrium path, even if the expansion of trading blocs through the acceptance of new members is not feasible. The results suggest that free-trade areas (FTAs) tend to expand more than customs unions (CUs). Lobbying by a producer can either promote or undermine the achievement of multilateral free trade through overlapping FTAs. © 2006 The Authors Journal compilation © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

In recent years， the number of preferential trade agreements（PTAs）increases rapidly． In tandem with the evolution of the new trade theory， the economic ana豆ysis of PTAs has also been developed drastically． This paper intends to organize a complicated mass of existing theories of PTAs and places special emphasis on their relationship with multilateral trade liberalization． Some new topics such as the effects of intemal market integration or those of rules of origin are also discussed．